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| AMPAS |
With the 85th
annual Academy Award ceremony just hours away, my question is: do you have your
predictions finalized? Every year there are three types of categories when it
comes to how predictable one is. You have the categories that are locks. These
are the ones that Oscar statues could already be engraved for, making them easy
to predict. Then you have the safe bet
categories where the winner is not as clear but there is one nominee that will
surprise nobody if they win, therefore making them the safe pick when
predicating a winner. Finally, you have the up for grabs categories. These are
the categories that there is no front runner, making them the hardest to
predict but also the most interesting come Oscar night. As I am making my final
set of predictions, I have noticed that this year is no different than the past
as there are plenty of locks, safe bets and up for grabs categories. Let’s take a closer look at the some of these
categories.
THE
LOCKS
Best
Picture: If there is any Oscar category that I wish was up
for grabs, it is this one. Not because I think Argo is underserving but how exciting would it be if the last award
given on Oscar night, Best Picture, was completely unpredictable? Unfortunately,
just like the past several year, this will not be the case as Argo is a lock to win Best Picture.
When the nominations were announced on January 10th,
Lincoln looked like the front runner.
I even said in my Oscar nomination write up that Best Picture appeared to be Lincolns to lose. Well, it didn’t even
take 24 hours for Lincoln to start to
lose positioning as Argo took home
the Critic’s Choice Award for Best Picture. Argo
continued its rise of to the top just a few days later on January 13th
when it won Best Picture for a Drama at The Golden Globes. It was not the clear
cut Oscar winner just yet though as Silver
Linings Playbook, Golden Globe winner for Best Comedy/Musical, looked to be
the favorite for winning Best Ensemble Cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards is an important determiner for the Oscars
because unlike the Hollywood foreign press and the film critics, the screen
actors are actually a voting branch for the Academy Awards. On top of that, it
is the largest voting branch. Silver
Linings Playbook however did not win Best Ensemble cast. The winner: Argo. This was the beginning of the end
for any other Best Picture Nominee’s chances as the night before it won the
Best Picture at the Producer’s Guild Awards. It then went on to win Best
Director in the form of Ben Affleck at the Directors Guild Awards and Best
Adapted Screenplay in the form of Chris Terrio at the Writers Guild Awards. So
what do all of these wins equal: an Academy Award for Best Picture.
If any other nominated films have any kind of chance
to beat Argo it is Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook. If Steven Spielberg wins Best Director,
Tony Kushner wins for Best Adapted Screenplay and Tommy Lee Jones wins Best
Actor in a Supporting Role along with Daniel Day Lewis’s win for Best Actor in
a Leading Role, Lincoln could be
taking home the ceremony’s top prize. If David O. Russell happens to win Best
Director and for Best Adapted Screenplay, Robert De Niro wins Best Actor in a
Supporting Role along with Jennifer Lawrence winning for Best Actress in a
Leading Role, it could appear that Harvey Weinstein has worked his magic once
again and Silver Linings Playbook is
the one walking away with Best Picture. As you probably already noticed with
these scenarios, a lot of things have to happen which means Argo will become
the 85th film ever to be awarded an Academy Award for Best Picture.
Best
Actor in a Leading Role: For the first time in Academy
Award history, an acting category has just one nominee: Daniel Day Lewis. I’m
kidding of course, but not about Daniel Day Lewis being in class of his own. He
is unrecognizable in his performance as Abraham Lincoln but what makes him such
a remarkable actor is that when he signed on to take on the role, we knew that
he would be exactly that. If I was creative enough to think of another category
that would be more than just a guaranteed win, this Oscar race would be in it.
Daniel Day Lewis for not just the win but the historic win as he will become
the first actor ever to win three Oscars for Best Actor in a Leading Role.
Best
Actress in a Supporting Role: No need to dream any
longer Anne Hathaway, your performance in Les
Miserables will win the Oscar for Best Actress in a Supporting Role. Like
Daniel Day Lewis, Hathaway has been unbeatable this awards season so there is no
reason to think her winning streak will end on Sunday. Here is a thought: If
you win an Oscar for a performance in a musical you should have to sing your
acceptance speech.
Best
Foreign Language Film: It has been 40 years since a film
nominated for both Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film has lost the
latter of the two. The winning streak will continue this year as Amour will win the Academy Award for
Best Foreign Language Film. Why am I so sure? Amour’s Director and Writer,
Michael Haneke is not only nominated in both of these categories but could even
win one for his screenplay. It’s lead actress, Emmanuelle Riva is also a
contender for Best Actress in a Leading Role. Due to all of this, I’m not even
sure if Amour is allowed to lose so
if a major upset does occur, it will hands down be the biggest surprise of the
night.
THE
SAFE BETS
Best
Actress in a Leading Role: Two weeks ago this would have been
a lock with Jennifer Lawrence getting the win for Silver Linings Playbook. I’m sticking with Lawrence but this
prediction is now a safe bet instead of the sure thing it once was. Maybe this
has some to do with how this category played out last year. Viola Davis (The Help) won the Screen Actors Guild
Award but lost to Meryl Streep (The Iron
Lady) at the Oscars. Could Lawrence, the winner of the Screen Actors Award,
be beaten by Zero Dark Thirty’s Jessica
Chastain? Throughout awards season it has appeared that this category was just
a two horse race but Amour’s
Emmanuelle Riva has been becoming more and more a part of the conversation.
Considering the subject matter of Amour
when thinking about the average age of an Oscar voter, gives reason to believe
that Riva has a chance to beat both Lawrence and Chastain. With her 86th
birthday also being today, an Oscar win would be a great birthday present but
like I said, this is a safe bet category and the safe bet is Lawrence.
Best
Original Song: Even though this year this category can
probably be considered more of a done deal than a safe bet, it is a category
that has historically been hard to predict. This year’s winner will likely be
Adele for her song “Skyfall” from Skyfall
but if any other song were to win, it would be Les Miserables’ “Suddenly” by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel
Schonberg and Herbert Kretzmer. One thing that is certain though, is that if
Adele does win, a memorable acceptance speech is sure to follow.
Best
Animated Short Film: When I was setting in the theater
waiting for Wreck-It-Ralph to start, Paperman was featured before the film and
I remember being tremendously satisfied. I leaned over to the friend setting
beside me and whispered “That is going to win an Oscar”. Well, almost four
months later, it appears that Paperman is
going to exactly that: win the academy award for Best Animated Short Film. With
that said, it has strong competition with films such as Adam and Dog, Fresh Guacamole
and Head Over Heels. Out of these
three films, Adam and Dog looks to be
the one that has the greatest chance to pull off the upset.
Best
Director: This category is a tricky one because unlike several
other category’s, there is nothing to go by. The winner of all the director
related awards that have been handed out this year have went to Ben Affleck. So
with Ben Affleck not even nominated for Best Director, this category is a
little more open. It appears to be a three man race between Steven Spielberg,
David O. Russell and Ang Lee. Since this category has been somewhat
overshadowed by who was not nominated instead of who was and even though I can
give plenty of reasons why Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow deserved a
nomination, it is also important to note that the three previously mentioned
men are all deserving of the win. Only one can take home the Oscar though and
that one will be Spielberg.
UP
FOR GRABS
Best
Actor in a Supporting Role: One thing is for sure
in this category: Alan Arkin (Argo)
will not win. That leaves four other actors who all happen to already be in possession
of the coveted statue. It seems that everyone has forgot that The Master even happened, so despite a
Critics Choice Award, Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s chance at winning seems slim,
or just slimmer than the next three men. Django
Unchained’s Christoph Waltz appears to be a strong contender but the fact that
he just won three years ago, the last time he was nominated, for another Quentin
Tarrantino film makes me hesitant to predict him winning. Silver Linings Playbook’s Robert De Niro has Harvey Weinstein on
his side giving him a boost but with not winning any other award this year, he
may have to settle for 2nd or 3rd or maybe even fourth.
Then there is Tommy Lee Jones for his performance in Men in Black 3. Alright, you got me; Lincoln was the film that featured the nominated performance by
Jones. Jones took home Screen Actors Guild Award so I’m going with him for the
Oscar win but like I said it’s an even playing field so it should be one of the
more interesting announcements of the night.
Best
Animated Film: If Brave
was made by pre 2011 Pixar, this category would be far from up for grabs but
that is not the case so Walt Disney Animated Studios is looking for its first
ever win with Wreck-It-Ralph. This
category is hard for me to predict because of much more I liked Wreck-It-Ralph than Brave
but I cannot let bias get in the way and have to look at the facts. Brave won the Golden Globe. Wreck-It Ralph won the Annie Award. The
Globe winner has gone on to win the Oscar 66% of the time and the Annie Award
winner has gone on to win 73% of the time. I know it’s close but I’m going with
the Annie Award winner, Wreck-It-Ralph
for the win and yes, I admit, there may have be a bit of bias involved in this
decision.
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